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ETSY

Etsy, Inc.

2026Q2 · Earnings 2026-08-05 (Reported 37d ago)

At a glance · Earnings setup

Street supported

Confidence: Medium

Street's $649.7M expectation looks reasonably consistent with the operating evidence we have.

Street

$649.7M

Revenue consensus · +3.3% YoY

Revision: Unknown

No direct Street KPI consensus

Operating requirement

Required GMS at latest / trailing take-rate band: ~$2.5B

Evidence

No material independent evidence listed at this cutoff.

Coverage

  • Usable management indication
  • Direct Street segment KPI consensus

1 · Street

What Street says

$649.7M

Revenue consensus · +3.3% YoY

Analysts
—
Range
—
As of
2026-07-29
Revision
Unknown

2 · Street needs

What Street needs

For Street revenue to be right, these operating outcomes are roughly what the model implies.

Confidence: High · based on n=31 history

  • Required GMS at latest / trailing take-rate band: ~$2.5B (about $2.7B–$2.8B)
  • Latest GMS (2026Q1): ~$2.5B
  • Latest take rate (2026Q1): ~+25.7% (about +22.8%–+24.5%)

3 · Management

What management says

No usable management guidance for this cutoff.

4 · Business

What the business is doing

  • Etsy marketplace GMS

    $2.6B

    2026Q2 · YoY +8.3%

  • Consolidated GMS

    $2.6B

    2026Q2 · YoY -8.0%

  • Take rate

    +25.9%

    2026Q2 · YoY +7.8%

No direct Street KPI consensus for this quarter. Implied operating requirements still apply where available.

5 · QW setup

Where QW lands

Supports

No material supporting evidence listed.

Against / uncertainty

No material opposing evidence listed.

Fragility Moderate
  • Some dispersion, revision, or sensitivity evidence elevates fragility
  • The implied-requirement range is unusually wide — treat with caution

Still missing

  • Usable management indication
Sources & methodology

Setup methodology v0.2.

Internal classification note: Street-required operating performance is reasonably consistent with available management/trajectory evidence

  • street_consensus · Zacks · link
  • other_guidance · SEC earnings release · link
  • kpi:gms_m · qw_kpi_actuals
  • kpi:take_rate_pct · qw_kpi_actuals
  • street_consensus · Zacks · link
  • street_consensus · Zacks · link
  • kpi:gms_m · qw_kpi_actuals
  • kpi:take_rate_pct · qw_kpi_actuals
  • How Quarter Winner works →